I know folks out there are excited about our country having the first Black President, but you still have to be careful not to simply repeat talking points from the White House without challenging them. I was on one site yesterday afternoon and folks have fully accepted the claim that the economy is “recovering”.
Huh?
Notice I said “The White House”. It does not matter who occupies it.
From the AP:
THE WHITE HOUSE SAID: The stimulus has created or saved 150,000 jobs.
THE FACTS: Since February, the nation has lost more than 1.3 million jobs, according to the Department of Labor. To make the case that the country created jobs over that same stretch, the White House has put forward a benchmark of jobs created “or saved.” The argument is that the job numbers would have been even worse had it not been for the stimulus, and the difference between those numbers is a net positive.
To visualize that disconnect, consider this: The administration has promised to create or save 600,000 more jobs in the next 100 days. Even if the nation loses another 5 million jobs during that span (a highly unlikely prospect) the White House could still claim success.
There are few hard numbers when it comes to tracking stimulus jobs. The Obama administration numbers are based on estimates by the White House Council of Economic Advisers, based largely on a formula Obama’s transition team put forward. It estimates the effect of tax breaks, government spending and social programs on job growth.
Spending money will put people to work. But spending has a cost. At some point, Washington will have to pay for this program, either by raising taxes or interest rates, and those policies typically hurt job growth. The Obama administration’s job data do not take into consideration this back-end cost, an omission some economists, particularly conservative economists, say is a flaw in the analysis. (more…)
“Spending money will put people to work” is a very loose claim by the AP. Real market DEMAND for a product or service will put people back to work. If spending money increased employment, then based on the trillions we have spent between Bush and Obama’s bailouts, we should be doing quite well.
The current unemployment rate is at 8.6%. Out here in Cali, it is at 11.2%. Based on that, I see the unemployment rate nationally reaching to at least 10% by the end of the year.
I’m just a little surprised the AP put this article out there.
