TheHill.com reports:
Democrats are bracing for a precipitous drop in black voter turnout next month and beyond.
Alarms are being rung about just how many African-Americans will vote without President Barack Obama on the ballot, and the New Jersey and Virginia governors’ races in three weeks will provide the first major test since the 2008 election.
A recent Washington Post survey estimated the black turnout in Virginia’s governor’s race at 12 percent, which would be about a 40 percent drop from last year’s general election. Other polling has shown both its and New Jersey’s black population unmoved about the off-year election.
The question at this point isn’t so much whether black voters will turn out at 2008 levels, but how big the drop will be — and then, whether it carries into the 2010 midterms.
Tom Jensen, a spokesman for the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, has been among the most outspoken. He said the high number of Democrats with districts that are significantly black means such a turnout shift could be disastrous for Democrats.
“If what looks like is going to happen in Virginia plays out on a national level, I do think Democrats will lose the House,” Jensen said.
“We really don’t find that many people who voted Democratic in 2008 are switching sides; they’re just becoming complacent,” he added. “And that’s particularly true with black Democrats, which is the party’s most dependable voter bloc.”
Turnout in general elections are typically higher for both Blacks and the rest of the country than it is on the local level. So Democrats should have have known this from jump. With all the scrutiny on ACORN recently, it’s going to be real interesting to see just how involved they will be in the voter registration process. If they cut back, Black voter turnout (I believe) will be one of the lowest in decades in most districts. Why? Complacently and the illusion that now that we have a Black President, why bother?
Until then, Democrats running for re-election are going to have to dig up every picture of Obama to remind folks that they are part of the Obama down line. Sorta like what Corzine is doing in New Jersey.
It’s sad when a politician cannot stand on his own accomplishments. Will it work?
Here is an article I found in the LA Times back in 1987 that talks about this same voting pattern.
Blacks Repeated Low Voter Turnout Pattern
The No-News News
by Duane on October 15th, 2009 at 2:36 amTheHill.com reports:
Turnout in general elections are typically higher for both Blacks and the rest of the country than it is on the local level. So Democrats should have have known this from jump. With all the scrutiny on ACORN recently, it’s going to be real interesting to see just how involved they will be in the voter registration process. If they cut back, Black voter turnout (I believe) will be one of the lowest in decades in most districts. Why? Complacently and the illusion that now that we have a Black President, why bother?
Until then, Democrats running for re-election are going to have to dig up every picture of Obama to remind folks that they are part of the Obama down line. Sorta like what Corzine is doing in New Jersey.
It’s sad when a politician cannot stand on his own accomplishments. Will it work?
Here is an article I found in the LA Times back in 1987 that talks about this same voting pattern.
Blacks Repeated Low Voter Turnout Pattern